Guided Learning Pathway Fourteen
Before You Commit
A selected journey through evidence, assumptions, testing, challenge, uncertainty, decisions and learning—for people deciding what an idea deserves next.
7 stages18 selected resourcesApproximately 9–11 hoursFree · self-directed
The central movement
Evidence → Assumptions → Testing → Challenge → Uncertainty → Decision → Learning
Bring one real idea or decision into the pathway. By the end, you should be better able to:
- Separate evidence from belief, inference and confidence
- Identify the assumption carrying the greatest decision risk
- Design a proportionate test before a major commitment
- Use disagreement, scenarios and cultural intelligence constructively
- Reach a conditional Proceed, Revise, Pause or Stop recommendation
- Keep learning after the decision enters the real world
How to use this pathway
The complete route takes approximately 9–11 hours. For a focused route, complete the seven articles, the exercises and three featured media selections: Tricia Wang, Margaret Heffernan and Annie Duke. The objective is not to consume content. It is to produce a decision record you can use.
01Stage 1
Separate the idea from the evidence
Begin by distinguishing what is known from what is inferred, assumed, contradicted or still unknown.
Apply itWhat do we genuinely know—and what have we begun treating as true?
Practical output: Create a CIS Evidence Ledger.
02Stage 2
Find the assumption carrying the idea
Not every uncertainty deserves equal attention. Identify the belief that is most important, least certain and most consequential.
Apply itWhat must be true for this idea to work?
Practical output: Build a Load-Bearing Assumption Map.
03Stage 3
Design the smallest useful test
Do not build a smaller version of everything. Test the uncertainty most capable of changing the decision.
Apply itWhat is the smallest credible action that could generate evidence about the most important uncertainty?
Practical output: Write an Evidence Test Brief.
04Stage 4
Give the idea an intelligent opponent
A promising proposition becomes more credible when it can survive informed disagreement, counterevidence and an honest account of failure.
Apply itWhat becomes visible when somebody is authorised to challenge the idea?
Practical output: Complete a Red Team Challenge and pre-mortem.
05Stage 5
Place the idea into more than one future
The objective is not to predict one future perfectly. It is to understand how the idea behaves as demand, cost, participation and conditions change.
Apply itDoes the idea remain credible under favourable, likely and adverse conditions?
Practical output: Create a Scenario and Decision-Threshold Map.
06Stage 6
Make the decision visible
Bring evidence, assumptions, cultural analysis, scenarios, dissent and safeguards into a recommendation people can understand and use.
Apply itWhat direction does the evidence currently support—and under which conditions?
Practical output: Produce a one-page CIS Decision Report.
07Stage 7
Turn the decision into a learning system
Proceed, Revise, Pause and Stop are not permanent verdicts. Each begins a new cycle of action, observation, evidence and review.
Apply itWhat happens after the decision—and what evidence would cause us to think again?
Practical output: Complete a Decision-to-Learning Plan.
The completed CIS Decision Pack
Seven working documents. One visible decision process.
01Evidence Ledger
02Load-Bearing Assumption Map
03Evidence Test Brief
04Red Team Challenge
05Scenario and Decision-Threshold Map
06CIS Decision Report
07Decision-to-Learning Plan
From self-directed learning to a live decision
Test what the idea deserves next.
A strong idea does not need protection from every difficult question. It needs the opportunity to become clearer through them. Use the pathway independently, enter the free Simulation Lab preview or bring one live decision into the £150 CIS Idea Simulation Review.